GSI Mock Draft: Round 3

13. July 2008  - Published by Dan Clasgens
Comments (8)
We are crusing right along in the GSI Mock Draft here on the BLOG. Round 3 is often where the championship teams begin to seperate themselves from the wanna-be-contenders.

RECAP: ROUND 1 | ROUND 2

Here's Round 3:
21. PREUTH - RB Laurence Maroney - NE
22. CLASGENS - WR Braylon Edwards - CLE
23. HUMBERT - RB Jamal Lewis - CLE
24. BOLTON - WR Andre Johnson - HOU
25. DINSMORE - QB Tony Romo - DAL
26. MURDICO - WR Larry Fitzgerald - ARI
27. SIMS - RB Earnest Graham - TB
28. SIMON - RB  Reggie Bush - NO
29. WETZEL - RB Ronnie Brown - MIA
30. FISCHER - WR Marques Colston - NO

My Pick: There is not much difference in my minid in WR's 2 thru 6, I took Edwards mostly on I think his ceiling is still rising. He is a force in the red zone and hands down a top five wideout on my board. I ranked Larry Fitzgerald higher earlier in the week in WR RANKINGS, but when it came time to pull the trigger I went with Edwards. Look him to approach similar yardage as the 1289 receving yards he had last year, but 16 TD's is unlikely. Still, he has a good shot as any WR outside of Randy Moss to lead the league in touchdowns.

Biggest Reach: Just because the Bucs resigned him, I am not convinced Earnest Graham is going to be worthy of a third-round pick, much less the 27th overall selection. He did have 10 TD's and finished with 898 yards and Cadillac Williams will likely start to the season on the PUP list (if he plays at all) as he recovers from the knee. Still, Graham's 4.0 yards per carry is not very sexy to me and apparently Jon Gruden didn't think so either as he re-signed Michael Pittman and brought in Warrick Dunn. Tampa Bay's offense is unexciting and despite the fact he will see the bulk of the carries, Graham will not be as safe of a bet as a No. 2 RB as many think.

Final Take: The round clearly demonstrates it is much better to grab a No. 1 wideout than a second RB at this point of the draft. The gambles taken on RB's here are all very much gambles and even some of the ones that I agree with and like (Ronnie Brown, Jamal Lewis, and Reggie Bush if Deuce McAllister is healthy) are easily capable of blowing up on you. Just be prepared. If you wait to Round 3 to get a RB2 then I would seriously consider getting your RB3 within the next round or two, especially in FLEX leagues.

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Comments

Jimmy Dinsmore
Jimmy Dinsmore
7/14/2008 6:55:36 AM #
Dan is 100% right. Thankfully we're not playing out this league. I felt good initially about my Romo pick (36 TDs last year and no reason to think that will slow down at all). But, since we're now halfway through Round 4, and no QBs have gone, I'm sure I could've waited. I might not have gotten Romo, but I would've still gotten a very good QB (like Brees or Carson). That being said, Romo wasn't a bad pick, and a good value, but Larry Fitzgerald was still available and I should've grabbed him before Romo. Fitzgerald was the last "top tier" WR on my board. While I had Romo, Palmer and Brees all in the same tier. So, always try to grab the best tier player on your board (except DEF and Kicker of course). When we post the round 4 results, you'll see how many quality WRs are gone now and what I got left with.
Bret Sims
Bret Sims
7/14/2008 7:52:16 AM #
Graham will out perform Bush, Maroney and Lewis so while I agreee with your analysis of what might happen in Tampa I feel better about having Graham than the other three mentioned.

Maroney, like Jackson are always picked higher than he should be because people like his potential but potential doesn't equal success in the NFL.
Jim Humbert
Jim Humbert
7/14/2008 8:13:59 AM #
I like picking Jamal Lewis near the top of this round. I passed on a running back a few picks earlier and went with T.O. At the time I preferred Lewis to Maurice Jones-Drew and Lawrence Maroney and it worked out for me. Those two younger guys may have better upside but one is in a platoon and the other is on a multi-faceted offense. Lewis will be 29 in August and is coming off of his best season in four years. Another 1,000+ yards and 8 to 10 TD's are in the works.
Bret Sims
Bret Sims
7/14/2008 9:06:11 AM #
Jim,

I guess that is why they call it Fantasy Football so you can dream Lewis will put up numbers like that.

Bret
Jim Humbert
Jim Humbert
7/14/2008 9:27:23 AM #
Bret,

Lewis ran for 1304 yards and 9 TD last year. He also caught 2 TD passes. He had four 100 yard performances in the last six games in 2007, showing no signs of age. He has run for at least 1000 yards in six of his seven seasons and the year he didn't he finished with 906.

His only downside is that he plays for the Browns, who by the way did better than Bengals last year.
Chris Wetzel
Chris Wetzel
7/14/2008 1:45:41 PM #
So, the Ronnie Brown pick...yes, he was injured.  Yes, there is always a risk with this injury, especially with the timetable he is imposing on himself to come back.

But Ronnie Brown was the best fantasy running back in the first few weeks of the season before being injured.  I know that the offense change could hurt him, but if he is healthy enough to be a significant producer, this will be a steal.  He is first round material when healthy.

And yes, I intend on following up soon with a strong RB3.  However, last year I had more success with playing WRs in my flex than RBs, especially when people in my league gave up on guys like Marques Colston and Lee Evans too early, and a rookie like Dwayne Bowe producing like he did last year.
Jimmy Dinsmore
Jimmy Dinsmore
7/14/2008 4:45:22 PM #
Round 3 was interesting. I don't see anyone who made a killer pick or got a steal. Lots of question marks. This is why drafts are won by this round and the next couple.
Dan Clasgens
Dan Clasgens
7/14/2008 8:59:30 PM #
There's no doubt about it. The best picks of Round 3 were the four receivers taken. All of them will out perform most RB2's this year, including the ones in this Round.
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