Fantasy Fallout: New Offensive Coordinators

10. August 2008  - Published by Jimmy Dinsmore

Before your draft, arm yourself with knowledge. Every year teams change coordinators and sometimes these moves can have huge fantasy impacts. Here's a couple to take note of.

Atlanta Falcons - Mike Mularkey takes over as offensive coordinator. Big deal, right? Wrong. Mularkey brings with him not only a reputation (we'll get into that word further later on) but also the stats to prove that his arrival can have a fantasy impact. Michael Turner will be the foremost beneficiary of Mularkey's power-running scheme. Turner, the Falcons' big free-agent signing, will get the ball in hands a lot. That elevates Turner to a top 20 RB and an easy RB2 for any fantasy team. Jerrious Norwood probably moves up a notch, but is probably not going to be drafted in most leagues regardless. Rookie QB Matt Ryan could also benefit from having a developed running scheme. The pressure will be off him, which could inflate his stats a little. However, Ryan is still bye week fill-in this year, at best.

Baltimore Ravens - Cam Cameron resurfaces after an embarrassing performance as head coach in Miami. Cameron is much more suited to be a coordinator. Cameron's offense is conservative and run-oriented. Good news for Willis McGahee, who Cameron has stated publicly how much he loves and feels he was underutilized. Another beneficiary of Cameron's arrival will be Todd Heap. Cameron always utilizes tight ends in his offense. With Troy Smith under center, or Kyle Boller or rookie Joe Flacco, don't bank heavily on Heap though, but do look for McGahee to be worthy of a top 10 pick and a guaranteed RB1 for your team.

St. Louis Rams - Offensive coordinator Al Saunders will take over the play calling from Scott Linehan. This means less downfield passing and a more balanced attack. Of course, none of this matters if the Rams can't get a deal in place with RB Stephen Jackson who is holding out. Without Jackson, the offense is worthless. Let's assume Jackson suits up for the first game. If so, then Saunders' play calling will make tight end Randy McMichael a nice pick. He was a lot of people's "sleeper" pick last year, but this year he might actually prove those people correct (albeit one year too late). With Torry Holt occupying one side of the field, Drew Bennett and rookie speedster Donnie Avery could have a fantasy impact. Both of these guys could be drafted and could fill in as a WR4 on your team, especially with Saunders calling the plays.

San Francisco 49ers - Now for the "reputation" part that I referenced. Mike Martz strolls into town with that old reputation of being some kind of offensive guru. Let's make one thing clear, Mike Martz is all reputation and not enough stats to back up that guru status. Martz underutilized Stephen Jackson when he was in St. Louis, he completely forgot to run the ball in Detroit, so now he can ruin Frank Gore's value. Lots of people have Gore as a top 10 RB and that's probably still true, but draft wisely. Gore's value is hurt by Martz. Also, don't assume that the 49er WRs will benefit from Martz's pass-happy schemes. Who's going to throw the ball? Martz's system are too complicated for most people to get down in the first season. Perhaps, if you are desperate you might draft Isaac Bruce, who's obviously familiar with the system. But Bruce is way past his prime. A true sleeper on the 49ers is Bryant Johnson, who could serve as a WR3 or WR4 on a team. Lastly, I am not a believer in Vernon Davis, especially with Martz in town. Name one tight end who thrives in a Martz offense. That's right, you can't. 

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Comments

8/10/2008 6:42:14 PM #
I think you're right on the Ravens' running game being improved, but I've heard more than a few people say that McGahee hasn't been overly impressive so far in training camp, whereas rookie Ray Rice has been tearing it up.  The staff is describing him as a Mo-Jo Drew type, if that's the case that might draw enough TD's away from McGahee to really hurt his standing.
8/10/2008 7:58:17 PM #
Paying attention to coaching changes is what separates the experienced and successful fantasy owners from those that simply like to donate money to their friends annually.

I do have some different takes though...
--Not big on McGahee myself. RB's on bad teams are something I try to avoid and after watching the Ravens' quarterbacks in Week One of the preseason I have convinced the Ravens are going to be bad enough for me to stay away. He's good, but let someone else go late-Round 1 or early-Round 2 on him.

--Same can be said of Michael Turner in Atlanta. The guy has upside for sure, but to assume he's top 20 back and a safe option as RB2 is a bigger gamble than you think.

--Mike Martz or not...Vernon Davis is going to be a stud, he has too much talent.
8/10/2008 11:00:51 PM #
What has Vernon Davis done yet to prove himself with or without Mike Martz? This is what makes fantasy great. Guys who know what they're talking with differing opinions.
I should've mentioned Ray Rice in my post and meant to include him, but was being distracted by my daughter when I was writing that. He could be a sleeper candidate for sure, but I think McGahee will not disappoint.
8/11/2008 6:39:25 PM #
Kids will do that to you.  Just read today that McGahee's knee is getting scoped today, and Rice will start the season opener.  Keep your eyes on that one, this could become a real problem for McGahee owners.
8/12/2008 7:05:34 AM #
yes, from a fantasy perspective that's a bad thing, but as someone who hates the Ravens, I'm fine with it.
12/16/2008 2:18:51 PM #
He could be a sleeper candidate for sure, but I think McGahee will not disappoint.
12/31/2008 9:13:40 AM #
RB's on bad teams are something I try to avoid and after watching the Ravens' quarterbacks in Week One of the preseason I have convinced the Ravens are going to be bad enough for me to stay away.
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