So many Reds insights, so little time...

THE GOOD

• RHP Ramon Ramirez has been a pleasant surprise... to some.  To others, mainly the sabermeticians, this is no surprise.  Stat wizards have long discounted E.R.A. as a primary measure of a pitcher's worth since E.R.A. depends so much on defense and the bullpen, forces outside a pitcher's control.  Instead, they look at strikeouts per nine innings, walks per nine innings, and home runs allowed.  Ramirez could be their poster boy for this argument.  His combined minor league E.R.A. was a decent, but not eye- catching, 3.70 in 2007 and 3.59 in 2008.  His other minor league numbers in 2008 of 9K/ 9 IP, 3.5 BB/ 9 IP, and 0.9 HR/ 9 are eye- popping and tell us that this kid is a major leaguer.  In his three appearances so far with the Reds, he has 16 IP, 12 K, 6 BB, and 2 HRA- right in line with his minor league numbers.  Ramirez throws a fastball in the low 90s, a below average slider, and a low 80s changeup.  Oddly enough, it is his changeup that he throws the most (58% of the time so far with the Reds) because he throws it for strikes much more often than the other pitches.  Its not all good news though.  His current BABIP (batting average of balls put into play) is a tiny .108, which means that when batters are making contact, they are hitting the ball right at people.  This rate cannot continue- its impossible.  Also, very few starters in the major leagues can make it with just two good pitches.  My prediction?  He develops into a solid mid reliever or setup reliever.
  
  
• Even George Grande can figure out that the Reds need a big bat in the lineup for 2009 or contention seems unrealistic already.  The 2008 free agent slugger list is not an impressive one:  Pat Burrell, Adam Dunn, and Mark Teixeira head the list.  Dunn is not a possibility and Burrell and Teixeira may cost over $20 million a year on a multi-year deal.  That leaves the Reds with just one option- trades.  The Rockies' Matt Holliday has been mentioned as a target and he is a availible this winter because Holliday is a free agent after next year, the Rockies feel like he is already demanding too much for an extention, and the Rockies can get more value for him before the 2009 season.  The Reds could roll the dice and trade multiple young players (Homer Bailey, Chris Valaika, and Chris Dickerson?) for one year of Matt Holliday and then they could maybe win 82 to 85 games if they get a lot brakes.

THE BAD

• Even if the Reds do win 85 games next year with Matt Holliday, that total can no longer win the NL Central or NL Wild Card.  A few years ago, 85 wins would surely mean the playoffs, but with the drastic improvements of the Cubs, the Brewers, the Phillies, and the Mets over the last year, 85 wins gets you a seat on the couch in October.  Yes, the Brewers may lose both C.C. Sabathia and Ben Sheets to free agency and the Mets are an old team, but the Brewers' farm system is loaded and the Mets' financial resources usually put them in contention.  The bottom line?... there is too big of a gap to close between the Reds and playoffs for the Reds to gamble on Matt Holliday.  I would trade away Brandon Phillips, Aaron Harang, and Bronson Arroyo for a ton of young talent that can help in two or three years.  The Oakland A's subscribed to this theory this past year as they traded away Dan Haren, Rich Harden, Nick Swisher and Joe Blanton for loads for top minor league talent because they figured they could not catch the Angels this year.  Now the A's have realistic hope that they may catch the Angels in 2009 or 2010.


• The Reds did not dump the city of Sarasota in its bid for a better Spring Training complex.  The city of Sarasota dumped the Reds.  Sarasota voted to not expand and update their baseball facilities for the Reds, thus forcing the Reds to Arizona.  They are, however, going to vote to expand and update their facilities if the Boston Red Sox commit to moving to their city.  Sarasota figures that the Red Sox will bring in a lot more fans (and that means more money) than the Reds ever will.  How sad is that?

THE UGLY

• The local media, which has been mostly kind and patient with Dusty Baker, has started to show some dissatisfaction with Baker in that he did not live up to their expectations.  I, on the other hand, am very satisfied that Baker lived up to my expectations.  The difference here is that I expected Baker to be the worst manager in the Major Leagues and he did not disappoint.  And continues to not disappoint... 1.)  On August 30th, Ramon Ramirez went seven innings, giving up three earned runs against the Giants, while striking out six and allowing seven baserunners.  The rookie's reward?  Baker sent him to the bullpen in favor of Josh Fogg.  Luckily, Fogg, who will never pitch for the Reds again, hurt himself in his next start and now Baker is forced to take a look at Ramirez as a starter.  2.)  Why is Baker playing anyone will not be with the Reds next year?  Corey Patterson, Andy Phillips, Paul Bako and Javier Valentin should never see the field so we can evaluate Wilikin Castillo (he's terrible), Danny Herrera, Ryan Hannigan, Paul Janish (put Jeff Keppinger at third and Edwin Encarnacion in left field), Adam Rosales, and Drew Stubbs (why is he at home?).  Baker wants to play the veterans to "(keep) the integrity of the races and the game".  What?  Who is that helping?  The Cubs?  The Phillies?  The Brewers?  It sure is not helping the future of the Reds.
  
  
• When Baker puts a lineup on the field that includes Patterson, Bako, and any pitcher, he is giving away eight to twelve at bats to the opposition before the game even starts.
  
  
• Another reason why I would trade the veteran stars on this team over the winter and stockpile young talent is because I believe the Reds have no hope for contention while they have a stubborn, uniformed, misdirected manager who has never, ever, learned from his mistakes.  Start building for the post- Dusty era.

MLB reds, ramon ramirez, pat burrell, adam dunn, mark teixeira, homer bailey, chris vala ika, chris dickerson, dan haren, rich harden, nick swisher, joe blanton, dan haren, rich harden, nick swisher, joe blanton, brandon phillips, aaron harang, bronson arroyo, dusty bake, corey patterson, andy phillips, paul bako, javier valentin, wilikin castillo, danny herrera, ryan hannigan, paul janish, edwin encarnacion, jeff keppinger