K-Rod: Don't Let The Saves Fool You

21. September 2008  - Published by Dan Clasgens
Comments (4)

Lost in the pennant races and the start of the football season is the fact that Angels' closer Francisco Rodriguez is rewriting history. He picked up his 60th save (in 67 chances) Saturday night in the team's win over the Rangers.

K-Rod is due to be a free agent at the end of the year and you better believe some team is going to open up their pocket books. Keep in mind the Reds dished out 4 years, $48 million to a 32-year old Fransico Cordero this past off-season. That should translate into big bucks for Rodriguez. But is he really worth it?

He will only be 27 when next season begins, so age does not appear to be an issue. Still, teams need to look at more than just saves.

Rodriguez has not been as dominant this season as he has in the past, he's simply benefited from playing for a team that wins a bunch of close games. Consider some of these numbers recently posted by Adam Ronis on his fantasy blog at Newsday.com:

The Angels' closer has blown seven saves and none of his saves are for more than one inning. He has a 2.35 ERA and a career-high 1.34 WHIP. He has pitched in a career-high 72 games yet has a career-low 74 strikeouts. Hitters are batting .222, which is also a career worst. 

Brad Lidge has not blown a save all season. He has a 1.93 ERA, 1.19 WHIP and an 84/32 K/BB ratio in 65 1/3 innings. Rivera has blown just one save, and even Joakim Soria, who has 40 saves on a bad team, has blown just three.

Mariano Rivera has a 74/6 K/BB ratio in 67 1/3 innings with a 1.47 ERA and 0.70 WHIP. Jonathan Papelbon has a 2.08 ERA, 0.92 WHIP and a 73/7 K/BB ratio in 65 innings. Soria has a 1.65 ERA and 0.83 WHIP with a 64/16 K/BB ratio in 65 1/3 innings.

Joe Nathan, Rivera, Papelbon and Soria all have better ERAs and WHIPs than Rodriguez, some by a significant amount. Rodriguez has 17 more saves than the guy behind him. Jose Valverde has 42 saves.

Rodriguez has had 66 save opportunities. Papelbon is way behind with 44 chances and Nathan and Soria are tied for third in the American League with just 43 chances. That's a stark difference. Valverde leads the NL with 48 chances.

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Comments

Jimmy Dinsmore
Jimmy Dinsmore
9/22/2008 7:05:48 AM #
this goes to show that what Billy Beane says is true. You can convert anyone to a closer. I liked the Reds signing of Cordero. It was aggressive and addressed an area of need. But, I believe Jared Burton could've been the closer at a much cheaper price and then they could've spent that $40 million toward a leadoff hitter or some offensive holes.
Adam Bartel
Adam Bartel
9/22/2008 10:53:34 PM #
Just curious, how many World Series' have Billy Beane's teams been to?
Rick
Rick
9/24/2008 11:43:37 AM #
I love when someone asks that question.  Billy Beane has a payroll of what, 40 million to work with each year?  Yet he consistently wins ballgames with much less money than the rest, often surpassing the win totals of teams spending 100 million plus.  While this can happen here or there, doing this consistently and reaching the playoffs under these circumstances requires planning, skill and knowing how to spend your money wisely.  The same was the case this season before they decided to trade Harden and Blanton.  Pointing out that he hasn't won a world series when the playoffs are pretty much a crapshoot is silly.  Logic prevails.
Adam Bartel
Adam Bartel
9/25/2008 9:26:35 PM #
Actually what I was referring to was the fact that teams with strong closers typically win playoff games and series'.  Playoff games are typically close, since both teams are talented and at least fairly evenly matched; that's logical.  In games like that, teams that have the shutdown pitcher usually win; that's logical.  The A's allowed runs in two of the three games in 2006 playoffs where the ninth inning actually mattered.  Their bullpen blew the 2002 playoffs.  Guess the Yankees four World Series titles in five years were the result of just winning four crapshoots.  Yep, that's logical.
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