Did you miss this week's Fantasy Playbook as I go on with Lance McAlister on 1530 Homer the Sports Animal? Either way here's my notes from the show...
 
TREND OR MIRAGE
QB Kurt Warner (6 TDs/1 INT) – MIRAGE – Two things that will change: (1) he will throw more picks; since 2002 he has 54 TDs, but 27 INTs; (2) he will get hurt, 2001 was the last time he managed to play 16 games in a season.

RB Reggie Bush (32 receptions thru 3 games) – MIRAGE – Don’t get me wrong, Bush is going to produce good numbers this year, but he’s on pace for over 160 receptions. Once the Saints get healthy, those numbers will go down.

RB LenDale White (already with 4 TDs) – TREND – The yardage numbers are not going to be there, but White is a lock for double-digit TD’s. With Chris Johnson getting the Titans’ down the field, White is the goalline back and getting the job done.

WR Randy Moss (avg. 4 rec for 54 yards per game) – TREND – He’ll have his weeks where he explodes, but the ship is sinking in New England and we all know Randy will be the first one to jump off.  Wait for a blowup week and trade him while you can.

TE Kellen Winslow (only 14 catches for 116 yards thru 3 games) – MIRAGE – His turnaround will come and probably this week against the Bengals. He averaging 10 targets per week and that spells opportunity.

INJURY REPORT
Willie Parker (knee) – A sprained knee is going to keep him out for at least 2 weeks. Rashard Mendenhall gets the nod in his absence.
 
Brian Westbrook (ankle) – He's dealing with a high-ankle sprain, but is optimistic he'll play on Sunday. Keep your eyes on this one. Correll Buckhalter will start for Philly if he's out.
 
Steven Jackson (groin) – He practiced in full on Thursday and should be able to carry the full load in Sunday vs. the Bills.
 
BYE WEEKS
Detroit, Indianapolis, Miami, New England, NY Giants, Seattle

VALUE PACK
QB – Trent Edwards at STL: Everybody is a safe play against the Rams these days and Edwards has been consistent every week of the season.

RB – Selvin Young vs. KC:  He’s only averaging 60 yards per game early on this season, but only the Lions have allowed more yards than the Chiefs on the ground. The Chiefs have also allowed 6 TDs in 3 games so far in 2008.

WR – Steve Smith vs. ATL: Many fantasy owners were disappointed with 70 yards last week, but be patient. The Panthers host the Falcons this week and their weak secondary this week.

TE – Vernon Davis at NYJ: After catching just 1 ball over the past two weeks, I am going to recommend Vernon Davis as a viable option this week at tight end as only one team has allowed more fantasy points to TE’s than the Jets.

DEF – Bills at STL: I hate to keep picking on the Rams, but the Bills’ D is poised for a big day against a now Trent Grenn-ran offense. Look for plenty of sacks and turnovers for Buffalo and if your league gives points for concussions by opposing QB’s you can probably bank on that too.

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