The Cincinnati Reds' off- season has been interesting on a number of fronts...
1. Outside of the Yankees, owners have decided to cut back in payroll in anticipation of an economic downturn at their turnstiles. Either that, or they are using the state of the economy as an excuse to cut back in payroll. As a result, the Reds may not reach that $80 payroll figure that they had last year.
2. As a result of the lack of spending on the free agent market (outside of the top- tier free agents), the price tags for many free agents should go down in late January. Pat Burrell, Adam Dunn, Ben Sheets and others will not be able to get the four-year, $60 million contracts they were hoping for and this should help the Reds land Burrell. In my Realistic Off- Season Plan for the Reds, I advocated the move to sign Burrell to a two- year, $30 million contract. This lets him try the market when economic times will be better and it lets the Reds move Joey Votto to left field in two years to make room for Yonder Alonso. Burrell is not Adam Dunn. He has all of Dunn's positives and not as many of his negatives; he is right- handed, strikes out less, gets on base slightly more, plays slightly better defense, and is in better shape. Check out the numbers:
Dunn's on base percentage the last four years: .386, .386, .365, .387
Burrell's OBP the last four years: .367, .400, .388, .389
Dunn's slugging: .513, .554, .490, .540
Burrell's slugging: .507, .502, .502, .504
Dunn's strikeouts: 164, 165, 194, 168
Burrell's strikeouts: 136, 120, 131, 160
Burrell could be had for about $10 million a year come late January if he is still available. He would bat fourth (between Joey Votto and Jay Bruce). He would help Bruce and Edwin Encarnacion (batting sixth) reach 100 RBIs because he is on base so much and he would make the awful pickup of Willy Taveras a lot easier to stomach. Speaking of Taveras...
3. A leadoff hitter's most important attribute is NOT speed. That is a common misperception. The most important thing a leadoff hitter can do is get on base for the big bats behind him to knock him in. Taveras' on base numbers the last four years: .308, .367, .333, .325. If .345 to .355 is league average, Taveras' numbers are awful. Since he does not get on base much, the Reds' #2 and #3 hitters, Brandon Phillips (who has his own on- base issues) and Votto, will not be driving in many runs. It would not suprise me to see Votto hit .315/ .375/ .490 with 28 home runs and 85 RBIs. The Reds won so much last year with Jerry Hairston Jr. in the lineup because he got on base for Phillips, Votto and Bruce. Hopefully, the Reds can still sign Hairston and subsequently, bench Taveras. If not, Reds fans will be comparing Taveras to Corey Patterson by June and though its a bit of a stretch, it is not too far off.
4. Which brings us to Patterson. The Washington Nationals signed him to a contract last week that confirmed three theories: A.) Nationals General Manager Jim Bowden is the worst GM of all time. B.) Nationals G.M. Jim Bowden has more incriminating photos of his bosses than any other employee in our country. C.) The Nationals have have been the worst baseball franchise of the last five years and with moves like signing Patterson coupled with poor drafts and the inability to lure quality free agents, they are assured of being the worst baseball franchise for the next five years. To further emphasize this point... Mark Teixeira turned down $20 million more money (same length of contract) to go to his hometown Nationals in order to compete for a pennant with the Yankees. They cannot even overpay for free agents to go there.
5. Getting back to my Realistic Off- Season Plan for the Reds... RP Juan Cruz is still out there and Jonathan Sanchez is available through trade from the Giants. There is still some hope to overcome an awful Taveras decision!
435636b3-e669-4d21-9ca4-400687f05ac0|3|4.7
MLB
reds, pat burrell, adam dunn, ben sheets, yonder alonso, joey votto, willy taveras, jerry hairston jr, brandon phillips, jay bruce, corey patterson, jim bowden, mark teixeira, juan cruz, johnathan sanchez