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Playoff Picks: Super Bowl

31. January 2009  - Published by Dan Clasgens

The NFL season officially ends on Sunday as the Cardinals and Steelers tangle in Tampa for Super Bowl XLIII. The growing consensus seems to favor the Steelers, and for good reason. Still, I see it being a close game. Here's how I see things unfolding.

Pittsburgh no doubt has a tenacious defense. They blitz as good as any team in football and have the speed at linebackers to force the issue. Defenisve coordinator Dick LeBeau is going to have something up his sleeve with two weeks to prepare. 

Arizona's offense is going to be up for the challenge though. Kurt Warner is amongst the best in the league at passing under pressure and Larry Fitzgerald is having one of the greatest playoff runs ever. The team has found a way to keeps things just off-balanced enough by usinig the running game effectively.

I expect both units to make plays in this game and to force the issue. I do not see a scenario where Arizona is kept off the scoreboard like many are suggesting.

The game ultimately is going to come down to what happens on special teams and the other side of the ball. The Cardinals' defense has been highly overlooked for their stellar play during their improbable run. They bent, but did not break against the Eagles and made big plays all game long. That came on the heels of them shutting down the high-powered Panthers and Falcons' running attacks. For the most part they contained the big-play wideouts (Roddy White and Steve Smith) and more importantly helped the offense out by providing good field position.

Ben Roethlisberger is more than healthy enough to play this game and has acheived despite playing behind an average offensive line. Santonio Holmes is the team's biggest weapon in the passing game and will need to break a few plays to loosen things up for the running game. Willie Parker is going to be the difference though. Finally, he's 100% and I forsee him being a problem for the Cardinals' defense.

Both teams have had good play from their special teams, but one mistake could alter the outcome of this game.

Weather will not be on the Steelers' side. After playing most of the past month plus in frigid conditions and in their home stadium, they travel to Tampa. They should have a bigger crowd though, which could prove to be a factor.

MY PICK AND WHY: STEELERS 24, CARDINALS 20 - I see the game going either way and feel that the Cardinals will have a chance late in the fourth quarter. I like the fact that the Cards' coaching staff is so familiar with the Steelers even if Ken Whisenhunt doesn't see it. Still, Pittsburgh has proved to me all season that they can win the big game. It hasn't always been pretty, but they typically get the job done in the end as the 14-4 record would indicate. The Cardinals have never been here before, but Kurt Warner has. With two weeks of rest and the focus on Larry Fitzgerald, I expect Anquan Boldin to be the potential X-factor to keeping the Cards in it. The Steelers have more "big game experience" this year and have excelled in the fourth quarter. Even if the Cards have the lead, they struggle to grind it out and will do so badly against Pittsburgh. Look for the Cards to stay with the Steelers, but fade late as Pittsburgh gets their sixth title.

MVP PICKS - Willie Parker (my pick); Kurt Warner (if Cards pull it out)

MY BEST BETS (based off $100) - For Amusement Only ;-)
$50 - Cardinals +6.5
$20 - Parlay Cardinals +6.5/Under 47 (don't love the under)
$20 - Money Line Cardinals +195 (just in case they pull it off - they have to win, but you get $19.50 for every $10 bet)
$10 - Willie Parker to win MVP (+550) - $10 gets back $55

SUPER LINKS
--UTLIMATE SUPERBOWL PARTY PROP GAME (Bodog.com)
--COMPLETE MAN COVERAGE OF SUPER BOWL (AskMen.com)
--LATEST VEGAS ODDS (VegasInsider.com)
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SUPER BOWL XLIII PROP BETS (VegasInsider.com)
--MOCK CELEBRITY SUPER BOWL PICKS (HolyTaco.com)
--FLASHBACK: FAVORITE SUPER BOWL COMMERCIALS (from GetSportsInfo.com)
--HOMETOWN HOTTIES: PITTSBURGH VS. ARIZONA (from Maxim.com)

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