Bracketology, Take 2

22. February 2009  - Published by Adam Bartel
Comments (9)

With five of the top six teams in the bracket losing last week, it was tough to make major changes.  Last week I felt there were four definitive #1 seeds, and the rest were a step below.  The #1 seeds have not changed, but there's a lot less distance between them and the field.

Midwest Region

(1) Pittsburgh vs. play-in game winner (Alabama State vs. Tennessee-Martin)

(8) Florida vs. (9) UCLA

(5) Purdue vs. (12) Siena

(4) Florida State vs. (13) Davidson

(3) Duke vs. (14) North Dakota State

(6) Arizona vs. (11) Utah State

(7) Syracuse vs. (10) Minnesota

(2) Kansas vs. (15) Belmont

 

South Region

(1) North Carolina vs. (16) Radford

(8) West Virginia vs. (9) Ohio State

(5) Washington vs. (12) Creighton

(4) Gonzaga vs. (13) American

(3) Marquette vs. (14) Weber State

(6) Dayton vs. (11) Maryland

(7) Tennessee vs. (10) Texas A&M

(2) Memphis vs. (15) Robert Morris

 

East Region

(1) Connecticut vs. (16) Morgan State

(8) California vs. (9) UNLV

(5) Utah vs. (12) Michigan

(4) Wake Forest vs. (13) Virginia Commonwealth

(3) Villanova vs. (14) Vermont

(6) Xavier vs. (11) Kentucky

(7) Illinois vs. (10) San Diego State

(2) Missouri vs. (15) Cornell

 

West Region

(1) Oklahoma vs. (16) Long Beach State

(8) Butler vs. (9) Wisconsin

(5) Clemson vs. (12) Temple

(4) Arizona State vs. (13) Western Kentucky

(3) Michigan State vs. (14) Buffalo

(6) LSU vs. (11) Boston College

(7) Texas vs. (10) BYU

(2) Louisville vs. (15) Stephen F. Austin

 

LAST FOUR IN: Kentucky, Temple, Maryland, Michigan

LAST FOUR OUT: Penn State, South Carolina, UAB, Miami (Fla.)

NOTES:

  • A rash of losses pushed Memphis, Missouri, and Louisville into #2 seed slots.  Memphis is the most likely to sneak onto the top line, since Louisville still has a couple potential stumbling blocks before the Big East tournament.  Don't count out the Tigers though, who are quickly becoming the team no one wants to have to play. 
  • Arizona State and Florida State are quietly creeping up the board, making it to the #4 seed line this week.  The Sun Devils in particular loom as a dark horse Final Four pick, with their strong defense as well as standout SG James Harden.
  • Because of all the teams losing around them, Xavier's cold streak isn't going to kill them too badly.  It's going to be very tough for them to crack the top four again though.
  • Butler pretty much saved their season yesterday.  Had they lost to Davidson, they likely would have fallen to strictly automatic qualifier status.  They can't afford to slip up again before the conference tournament.
  • Ohio State needs to get focused, as the season could really unravel over the next couple weeks (vs. Illinois & Penn State, at Purdue).
  • Kentucky looks like they're going to continue riding the roller coaster.  I would hope this week would tell us more about them, but in all likelihood they'll split their games with South Carolina and LSU, and we'll be right back here next week.

College Hoops , ,

Comments

Bret Sims
Bret Sims
2/22/2009 6:58:03 PM #
How does Florida who played a weaker schedule and will finish behind UK end up with a higher seed or Tenn who UK beat the crap out of twice this season?  They are a 7 and 8 seed and UK is an 11.  That is a joke.
Bret Sims
Bret Sims
2/22/2009 6:59:47 PM #
Louisville and UNC are overrated and their ranking is a joke.

If this bracket were true, UK would beat XU.
Adam Bartel
Adam Bartel
2/22/2009 9:26:12 PM #
Kentucky hurt their case a lot by playing a whole lot of bad teams in the non-conference schedule (9 below #194, plus a loss to #165 VMI).  Florida's was pretty bad as well, their Washington win looks a lot better than UK's over WVU.  Tennessee has five top 50 wins and played the most difficult non-conference schedule in the country.  UK should feel happy just to be in the conversation.  They've got three big games in the next two weeks - if they don't win two of them, it's not going to matter much.
Bret Sims
Bret Sims
2/23/2009 12:04:05 PM #
While I agree with the schedule that you have brought up you can't tell me that Florida and Tennessee are playing better than Kentucky at this point.  UK will pound the Gators in Gainsville.
Adam
Adam
2/23/2009 12:35:12 PM #
If UK knocks off Florida at Florida, then they'll leapfrog the Gators, assuming they don't crap the bed against USC & LSU this week.  The problem with just saying who's better right now is that you discount everything else that's happened up to this point.  Obviously UK outplayed UT Saturday, and if you put a gun to my head I'd say they're probably playing better than Florida right now too, but record in the last 8/10/12 games is one of many factors you have to consider in the selection process (overall record, strength of schedule, road wins, wins vs. top 50, etc.).  

It's a big mess of numbers that the committee has to consider  (which is why I think the networks do a disservice to the process when they pull the "here's two teams without their names and you tell me who you think should be in" game with just two or three numbers - I could make Siena look like a #4 seed if I showed you just their RPI and strength of schedule, without telling you that they boosted their RPI by getting killed by five top 50 squads).
Bret Sims
Bret Sims
2/23/2009 2:28:30 PM #
The one thing that I am excited about this year is that unlike last year the top four number one seeds are very beatable and all could lose early.  Should make for a great tournament.
Bret Sims
Bret Sims
2/23/2009 6:51:38 PM #
If you look at the latest Bracketology on ESPN it has UK as a 7 seed, Tenn as a 9 seed and Florida as a 10 seed.  Just as I thought they should be.  Adam you can chant "You're not worthy" whenever you feel like it.
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2/27/2009 1:56:13 AM #
When they got moving, it looked like a lot of instantaneous transportation going on. And I was narrating the whole thing to my brother, too..
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6/9/2009 3:54:24 AM #
nice info. thanks
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