Bracketology, Take 1

15. February 2009  - Published by Adam Bartel
Comments (3)

Since every other site has a bracketology thing of some sort going on, I figured we should too.  Here's my first stab of likely several at the brackets, updated for results as of posting time:

East Region

(1) Connecticut vs. (16) Radford

(8) LSU vs. (9) Minnesota

(5) Washington vs. (12) Boston College

(4) Gonzaga vs. (13) Virginia Commonwealth

(3) Villanova vs. (14) Robert Morris

(6) Florida State vs. (11) Utah State

(7) Arizona State vs. (10) San Diego State

(2) Memphis vs. (15) North Dakota State

South Region

(1) Oklahoma vs. (16) Cal-State Northridge

(8) Ohio State vs. (9) BYU

(5) Marquette vs. (12) Davidson

(4) Wake Forest vs. (13) Buffalo

(3) Clemson vs. (14) Binghamton

(6) UCLA vs. (11) Wisconsin

(7) Utah vs. (10) Florida

(2) Louisville vs. (15) Tennessee-Martin

Midwest Region

(1) North Carolina vs. (16) Jacksonville

(8) Syracuse vs. (9) UNLV

(5) Illinois vs. (12) Siena

(4) Xavier vs. (13) American

(3) Missouri vs. (14) Weber State

(6) California vs. (11) Kentucky

(7) Dayton vs. (10) Virginia Tech

(2) Michigan State vs. (15) Sam Houston State

West Region

(1) Pittsburgh vs. Play-in game winner (Alabama St./Morgan St.)

(8) Texas vs. (9) Miami (Fla.)

(5) Tennessee vs. (12) Southern California

(4) Butler vs. (13) Northern Iowa

(3) Kansas vs. (14) Arkansas-Little Rock

(6) Purdue vs. (11) Temple

(7) Arizona vs. (10) West Virginia

(2) Duke vs. (15) Cornell


LAST FOUR IN: Wisconsin, Boston College, Temple, USC (Temple had to be bumped up a seed to balance brackets)
  • For the local teams, Xavier hasn't been hurt too badly by their two losses over the last 10 days.  Any more defeats (outside of Dayton, maybe) will become a problem and could give the committee an excuse to drop them below a top 4 seed.
  • Butler has earned its #3 seed.  Outside of one bad loss, they've done everything they're supposed to do; at some point you can't penalize them any more for the big boys not being willing to play them.  Beating Davidson on Saturday would give them another quality win to go with their Xavier victory.
  • Dayton has quietly taken care of business over the past few weeks, and is now in excellent position to get a top 8 seed come Selection Sunday.  The schedule is pretty favorable for them, and if they were to run the table they could probably elevate to a 4-5 seed.
  • Kentucky's wins over Florida and Arkansas last week have pushed them into the field of 64 - for now.  Their margin for error is thin; winning two of their next three would put them in pretty good shape.
  • Louisville's ceiling is likely at the #2 seed, but they should go no worse than 6-1 over their final seven, and if they do they should feel pretty good about their seeding.
  • Cincinnati still has several teams to climb over to get into the dance, and absent a big victory that no one expects, I don't see this changing.  The wins they expected to hang their hats on (Georgetown, Mississippi State, UAB) don't look nearly as good now, and they haven't been competitive in most of their losses against the top 50 RPI teams.

College Hoops , ,

Comments

Bret Sims
Bret Sims
2/15/2009 6:41:15 PM #
Kentucky will be just fine and they aren't as in bad of shape as you think.  One thing the tournament is about is money and when UK brings 20,000 people or more to tournament games you can bet they will be there before a more deserving team.
Dan Clasgens
Dan Clasgens
2/16/2009 12:42:42 PM #
The SEC's RPI is going to hurt Kentucky. If they tank down the stretch they will be headed to the NIT. How many people will show up at Rupp for that???

Also, Butler's disappointing effort on Sunday afternoon will likely kill their No. 3 seed. We will see though.
Adam
Adam
2/16/2009 2:49:40 PM #
That should have said "earned a #4 seed" for Butler, not 3.  Had they lost before I wrote the post, I'd have knocked them down at least to a 5, if not a 6, and would have moved Illinois up to a 4.
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