GSI Mock Draft: Round One

28. July 2009  - Published by Dan Clasgens
Comments (12)

It's that time of the year again. The 6th Annual GetSportsInfo.com Mock Draft kicked off on Monday and the opening round provided some interesting insights...

ROUND ONE
1. HUMBERT - RB A Peterson (MIN)
2. FISCHER - RB M. Turner (ATL)
3. CLASGENS - RB M. Jones-Drew (JCK)
4. ANSELMO - QB D. Brees (NO)
5. MURDICO - RB M. Forte (CHI)
6. SIMS - RB L. Tomlinson (SD)
7. SCHMITT - RB F. Gore (SF)
8. WETZEL - RB D. Williams (CAR)
9. BRYANT - RB S. Jackson (STL)
10. DINSMORE - RB B. Westbrook (PHI)
11. SIMON - RB C. Johnson (TEN)
12. BROERING - RB M. Barber (DAL)

POSITION BREAKDOWNS: RB (11), QB (1)

MY PICK: This is not necessarily the year to pick third. With the difference between the No. 3 running back on my Cheat Sheet and the No. 10 running back in the rankings being so slim, I would have preferred to pick at the bottom of Round One in order to get an early pick in Round Two as the draft order snakes. Picking third I had to with a running back.  Maurice Jones-Drew is the flavor of the off-season for fantasy gurus everywhere. Why wouldn't he be? Fred Taylor has long stood in his way of being an elite fantasy runner. However, Taylor has fled to New England via free agency, leaving MJD is the man in J-Ville! In a limited role he's produced at least 1100 yards per season and at least nine touchdowns per year. With Taylor gone, he will get his chance at being the featured back. It's hard to imagine the 5-foot-7 running back getting more than 20 touches per game very often, but he will make the most of his chances.

BEST VALUE PICK: LaDainian Tomlinson battled a nagging turf toe injury last season and disappointed many owners that spent a top pick on him. With his age, career workload, and Darren Sproles all factors in projecting his stats there's no doubt that the days of 2,000 total yards are over. But LT appears healthy and will definitely be given the ball early and often in San Diego. I expect him to approach 1500 total yards and 15 touchdowns if he stays healthy. That makes him a steal at No. 7. Too many websites have him ranked way too low.

MOST LIKELY TO DISAPPOINT: It's hard to pick a player from this group as being a bust-candidate. In fact, none of them fall under that category in my mind. If I had to pick one that may disappoint though I'll go with Michael Turner. Let me be clear, I love the Falcons' offense and expect a very productive year from Turner. Yet, the team has already said they plan on reducing his workload to ensure that he stays fresh. Plus, the addition of Tony Gonzalez and another year of maturity for the Falcons' passing game leads me to believe fewer touchdown chances for Turner. Throw in a tougher slate of games this year and it's hard to imagine Turner eclipsing 2008's numbers.

FINAL TAKE: Overall, it was solid drafting for the opening round. Drew Brees was a bit of a surprise with the fourth overall selection, but at least you know you will get consistency and that is what wins. Getting a Tier 1 quarterback is HUGE this season and Anselmo may not have gotten one in the second round. I was a bit surprised to see Larry Fitzgerald go undrafted, but expect a big run on wideouts in Round Two.

Fantasy Football , , , , , , , , , , , , , ,

Comments

Chris Wetzel
Chris Wetzel
7/28/2009 2:44:24 PM #
My initial thought was why not Michael Turner?  But I understand the criticism: the limitation of his role, the addition of Tony Gonzalez, another year of maturity for Matt Ryan and Roddy White, not to mention the effects of his heavy workload in 2008.

I think carries will be an issue for Jones-Drew, considering he hasn't taken the beating of a steady workload yet in the NFL.  (However, this could be a plus: although he hasn't had more than 200 carries in a season yet, it could mean he has a fresher body.  It also didn't hinder Turner from having a monster year last year despite 2008 being his first as the feature back.)  Also take into consideration his Westbrook-esque role in the passing game.

I'm happy with my pick at #8 of DeAngelo Williams, though all of these backs that are remaining have question marks.  Despite Jonathan Stewart's presence, Williams will see as many touches this year as he did last year.  Having been bitten by the injury bug most of last year on my team, I was looking for durability; Steven Jackson and Brian Westbrook were immediately scratched off my list here, and Chris Johnson still has LenDale White vulturing touchdowns in Tennessee.  All these first round picks, however, are for the most part sure picks and are capable of anchoring any team.
Ron Bryant
Ron Bryant
7/28/2009 3:28:13 PM #
I was pretty happy going into the draft to be picking near the end of at the #9 spot. I agree with Dan that there is not much difference in running backs ranked 3-10. Although i did find myself hoping for either Tomlinson or Williams to slip to me, especially with both still there with just two picks left before my pick. After the round, I was happy to see no WR taken and I enter round 2 hoping and expecting to get one of the top 3 WRS

There are concerns with Jackson. He has missed 8 games over the past 2 seasons with various injuries. His involvement in the pasing game has dropped the past 2 season as well, as he has 12 less receptions in those years combined than he did in 2006 when he caught 90 passes. With this not being a PPR league however, that doesn't hurt him quite as bad.

He still has the skills and potential to carry a fantasy team, Jackson somehow managed over 1400 yds from scrimmage and 8 tds last seasons in just 12 games played despite running behind a joke of an offensive line. The Rams would be wise to get Jackson much more involved in the recieving game again considering how shallow their wr depth is this season.

Overall, a solid 1st round with no really big surprises.
Jim Humbert
Jim Humbert
7/28/2009 3:49:03 PM #
I had a no-brainer with the top pick. Someone could make an argument for MJD or even Turner but you can't go wrong with Peterson. He's a stud on a bad team and still gets just the done, a lot like LT early on and Barry Sanders for his entire career.

I am surprised to see 11 RBs in the first round, especially with a few of those guys splitting duties. I don't know if Brian Westbrook is a first round pick but by the end of every season his numbers are always huge.
MCat
MCat
7/28/2009 4:28:52 PM #
Drew brees # 4 lol.
Bret Sims
Bret Sims
7/28/2009 5:20:11 PM #
Apparently J-Fish hasn't opened up a magazine or gone to a website to see that the history of RB's that have more than 350 carries in one year either get hurt or drop off significantly the next.  Add in all the other variables and picking Turner the Burner will end up burning Fish.

The "What were you thinking?" pick has to go to Anselmo for taking Drew Brees as the 4th overall pick.  Apparently he learned nothing from the Manning and Brady breakdowns after their super year.  But it allowed me to pick up LT who most people have forgotten but will be in the top 5 backs by the end of the season.
Roy Anselmo
Roy Anselmo
7/28/2009 8:46:54 PM #
Laugh away gents.  Fantasy football is about winning championships, and that means getting to the final game(Week 16 in most drafts), and most important, winning it!  In Weeks 14, 15, and 16; Brees at Atlanta, then at home against Dallas and Tampa respectively.  All indoor games in the dead of winter. Not to mention, they have one of the "weakest" schedules in the league when it comes to pass defense. When you pick #4, you expect to get a guy who is going to finish in the Top 5 overall scoring just about every week, and most importantly when it counts.  I feel confident Brees will be that guy.  

He is the captain of the #1 offense in the league, has multiple offensive threats, defense is questionable, and the head coach prefers to throw, not to mention the one yard dump-off pass "run" plays to Bush that lead to passing TD's.  And let me finish it off by saying, we are drafting based on a scoring method that rewards 6pts for passing TD's, not 4pts.  

Brees: 4500 yds passing, 35Tds appox. = 390pts
#1 RB: 2000 total yards  20Tds appox. = 320pts

Do the math.  

My home league has an almost identical scoring system for QB's, and RB's, but keep in mind that my league rewards PPR, for this one doesn't.  

Now,

2008 overall pts (based on PPR) in my league:
1. Brees - 413
6. DeAngelo Williams - 334
8. Turner - 321
11.Forte - 305
12.Peterson - 304
23.Tomlinson - 274

I think Brees will finish #1 again this year in the above scoring method, provided he stay healthy and play all 16 games(which he has done the last three years). If so, I just drafted the top overall scorer at #4.  Thanks guys, I will take that all day.  

What? ; )


ps. "I love your body Larry"
Jeremy Fischer
Jeremy Fischer
7/28/2009 9:19:33 PM #
I've got no problem with Turner at No. 2 obviously.  Yes, I'm aware of the workload that Burner had last year, and I'm aware of the regression, which for a guy that had as many carries as he did last year is a good thing.  I think everyone in this league is way overestimating the Tony Gonzalez factor.  The Falcons have already said that he'll be blocking more for them than he has in his career.  And as far as the maturing of the passing game, the Falcons are a run-first team.  That's what got them to the playoffs last year, and they aren't going to deviate from that formula too much this year.  Everyone around here makes it sound like the Falcons are going to bust out with an entirely new offensive philosophy, the way they're talking.  It won't happen.

Burner will not hit the numbers he did last year.  But he'll be worth the No. 2 pick.  Plus, every year I've taken crap from guys around here for one of my picks, and every year I prove them wrong.  I have no worries.

Finally, there is the curious case of Bret Sims.  Yes Bret, I am perfectly aware of the facts about RB's that you have stated. But if you want to play that game, allow me to point you in the direction of the injuries/lack of production for RB's over the age of 30.  You took L.T.  An RB that not only is over the age of 30, but has a recent history of breakdown.  So those who live in glass houses shouldn't throw stones.  We'll see what kind of talk you have once L.T. goes down...again.
Jimmy Dinsmore
Jimmy Dinsmore
7/28/2009 10:37:54 PM #
Brian Westbrook at #10 was a great value! I hate this crap about injuries, and yada yada yada. Football is a brutal sport and anybody can go down. Westbrook will get knicked up, but look at his production. He's a top 5 value at #10. I'll take that. The Drew Brees pick was atrocious. Brees was my #1 QB (barely) but he would've been there in round 2, as I think most would go for Brady over Brees. So that was WAY too high for him. And I'll disagree with Anselmo that you don't win with RB. It's an old adage because it's accurate. After the first 12 RBs or so, there's a huge drop. At QB, I am satisfied with any of 10 or 12, so I'm likely to get that need filled later on. Meanwhile, you have to wait 16 more players now before you can go for an elite WR or RB. That's not a recipe for success, in my opinion.
Forte and D. Williams were also solid value picks. They can thank Anselmo for their availability. Forte could easily be a top 3 RB. Cutler's presence only makes him better.
Roy Anselmo
Roy Anselmo
7/29/2009 8:35:43 AM #
Oh Top Jimmy, you seem to still be stuck in the good ole days when we were pulling fantasy stats from the Monday paper.  RB's are a dime a dozen.  Most play in RBBC now, the position takes a constant pounding, and injuries always mount.  As a result, lesser known backs eventually emerge as the season progresses and go on to be fantasy relevant by seasons end, ie. Forte, C Johnson, and Slaton last year.  I had all on my team by the way, and only drafted Forte...in the fifth round at that!  A savvy owner will always find at least one of these RB gems throughout the season.  I have done it the last three years while drafting a QB in round 1, and I will do it again this year.  

Not to mention, this is not a PPR league.  It drops the value of some of the aforementioned RB's considerably as a result, some 50-70 pts.  The fantasy landscape changed in my opinion when the league altered the rules in the passing game regarding contact several years ago.  It restricted the secondary and opened it up more for the WR's, hence upping the value of quality QB's and WR's.  

I may be going against the fantasy grain with my analysis, but my definition of insanity is repeating the same behaviors over and over again, and expecting different results.  If you like finishing in the middle of the pack every year with that "3rd rated RB" in the first round, by all means keep doing it.  

Im out....Until the second round.  : )



Chris Wetzel
Chris Wetzel
7/29/2009 10:12:48 AM #
I think it's not so much who will end up with the most points at the end of the season, but, to steal a Moneyballism, VORP (value over replacement player).  There are many quarterbacks who will score more than top 10 running backs or wide receivers, so why be concerned with grabbing one so quickly?  There are very few RBs who have a large percentage of their team's carries, and when they're studs, they're worth grabbing early.

Honestly, last year was an anomaly with grabbing RBs in later rounds/off the waiver wire.  All the guys mentioned by Roy (Matt Forte, Chris Johnson, Steve Slaton) were rookies, and last year was an unusual year for that.  This year there shouldn't be the same success, save for maybe Knowshon Moreno or Beanie Wells.  There were also gem WRs (Eddie Royal and DeSean Jackson) and QBs (Kurt Warner if you drafted when Matt Leinart was projected as the starter last year, Matt Ryan) to be had in lower rounds or on the waiver wire, it happens at every position.

You will see now that the RB well is dry by round 3, but there will be many QBs left who won't hurt your team.
Stop Dreaming Start Action
Stop Dreaming Start Action
7/30/2009 12:48:04 AM #
good information, thank you
ben10toys
ben10toys
7/30/2009 5:02:36 AM #
Actually I agree with all of you.
Comments are closed