GSI Mock Draft: Round Three

30. July 2009  - Published by Dan Clasgens
Comments (7)

Okay, Round Three is where things start to get interesting...

RECAPS: Round One | Round Two

ROUND THREE
25. HUMBERT - WR R. White (ATL)
26. FISCHER - WR M. Colston (NO)
27. CLASGENS - WR S. Smith (CAR)
28. ANSELMO - RB P. Thomas (NO)
29. MURDICO - WR D. Bowe (KC)
30. SIMS - RB R. Grant (GB)
31. SCHMITT - QB K. Warner (ARI)
32. WETZEL - WR T. Owens  (BUF)
33. BRYANT - WR T. Houshmandzadeh (SEA)
34. DINSMORE - RB J. Addai (IND)
35. SIMON - RB M. Lynch (BUF)
36. BROERING - WR C. Ochocinco (CIN)

POSITION BREAKDOWN: WR (7), RB (4), QB (1)

MY PICK: After taking a RB and QB, I had no choice but to wideout. I was hoping to grab one of my top 5 wideouts, but I couldn't pass on the Tier 1 quarterback (Peyton Manning) in Round Two. Still, Steve Smith is nice value here. People forget  when they look at his numbers that he missed two games due to a suspension last season. Smith has only played in all 16 games twice in his career, but the durability wrap is misleading. His numbers were down a bit last year as the Panthers ran early and often. They scored 21 rushing touchdowns over the last eight games. Still, Smith averaged over 5 catches per game and broke the 100-yard mark eight times in 14 tries. Carolina is a run first team, but I expect Smith to find the end zone a few more times in '09. Smith is a low-end WR1 with significant upside.

BEST VALUE PICK: If you read this blog regularly you know I already feel strongly about Pierre Thomas' upside. With that in mind, I peg Joseph Addai as my best value pick of the round. After scoring 15 TD's in '07, last season was a bit rough for the Colts' running back. He started strong by scoring four times in the first four games, but missed four games and parts of two others with injuries after that. The guy was a top 5 pick a year ago and plays in one of the league's best offenses. Getting him 34th overall is great value. The team drafted Donald Brown and he will push for time, but perhaps that will have a good impact on Addai and push him to do better (i.e. Jonathan Stewart's affect on DeAngelo Williams).

MOST LIKELY TO DISAPPOINT: Marshawn Lynch at this point is the worst pick of the draft so far. Not only is he losing the first three games (most fantasy leagues only play 13 weeks) due to a suspension, but he was outperformed most of last season by Fred Jackson. Expect Lynch to still be the featured back upon his return, but Jackson and the newly acquired Dominic Rhodes are going to get their crack at carries. I have at least eight RB's still available rated higher than him on my latest Cheat Sheet. Lynch could prove worthy, but he could have drafted a round or two from now most likely.

FINAL TAKE: Round Three is where fantasy championships start to get formed. It's hard to mess up the top two picks, but the decisions made between Rounds 3-7 are the ones that seperate pretenders from contenders. One thing is clear so far though, running back depth is much better than that at wide receiver this season.

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Comments

Jim Humbert
Jim Humbert
7/30/2009 10:18:57 AM #
Roddy White was an easy pick for me to go with Greg Jennings as a fairly solid 1-2 punch at WR. Both have huge upside and should mature nicely with their young QBs. If either would have been chosen before my turn, I would have gone with Steve Smith. Dan has already mentioned how he may be underrated this summer.

I question Kurt Warner being the fourth best fantasy QB this year. Sure, he's coming off a huge season and still has a great receiving corps but he's always had some injury issues and has a Heisman Trophy winner waiting in the wings. If he's healthy he'll put up good numbers but there may be three or four other QBs who have more upside and have not been drafted at this point.
Robert
Robert
7/30/2009 11:25:28 AM #
Round three is indeed interesting!
Jimmy D
Jimmy D
7/30/2009 11:53:23 AM #
Kurt Warner was a stretch. He probably would've been there in the next round. I couldn't believe that Addai was still there. It took me about 2 seconds to make that call. I know he's not first round material, but as Dan pointed out, he still has way too much upside on a great team. I don't think Brown is gonna push him as far as playing time and carries.
Chris Wetzel
Chris Wetzel
7/30/2009 3:35:58 PM #
Man, have the spammers been out in full force lately on the comments...

Anyhoo, I think I may have reached a bit with TO, but this was the situation I was in having gone with RBs in the first two rounds.  Still, TO has the upside to be a number one again, no matter who is throwing the ball to him.  But too little QB and Lee Evans on the other side might hurt TO more than I would like to admit.  I would have LOVED to have gotten any of the other four that went before my pick in this draft and been happy with a solid WR1, but it was not to be.
Bret Sims
Bret Sims
7/30/2009 3:52:10 PM #
Pierre Thomas was a very solid pick and more than likely will put up better numbers than Reggie Bush especially near the goal line  Bush isn't what people thought he was going to be and the Texans look better every year with passing on him and taking Mario Williams.

Marshawn Lynch could be one of this year's busts and I wouldn't have taken him before round 7 because 1) he is suspended the first three games 2) Fred Jackson was already challenging him for carries and 3) TO is going to be the way the offense runs this year.

My pick wasn't the best as was more done on emotion than anything but I can live with it.
Jimmy D
Jimmy D
7/31/2009 2:33:25 PM #
I don't understand all the bashing of TO. He's still, in my opinion, a top 10 WR. On a contract year, and always his first year at a new destination, TO performs like TO. Plus, Buffalo is gonna have to rely on him big time, especially with Lynch out on suspension.
Roy Anselmo
Roy Anselmo
8/4/2009 3:16:08 PM #
I was pleased to get Pierre at this slot. I think he will deliver low grade RB1 numbers, with monster weeks mixed in.  After seeing him at camp the first few days, I feel good about his role in the offense, especially considering the lingering knee of Reggie Bush.

The Colston pick is solid.  I asked him if we could see 1500 yards and 15TD this year, as he was giving me an autograph; and he said, "that sounds good to me" with a smile.  He was a monster at camp and I don't think I saw him drop a pass.  Expect big things from Colston this year.  Super nice guy too!

I expected more from a varsity letterman JD!  Addai??!??  He is done.  


Otherwise, solid round.  

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