John Fay of the Cincinnati Enquirer recently wrote an article concentrating on reasons for hope for the Cincinnati Reds in 2010.  The one- sided look at the Reds seemed promotional and, for long- suffering Reds fans, repetitive.  The mainstream print media that follows the Reds rarely gives a realistic approach at the present and future (and it too often paints the past with rainbows and pots of gold).  The truth is, the Reds do have some hope for 2010, but there are some major obstacles to overcome- obstacles that most good teams do not have to deal with.  So as the 2009 season comes to a close, here are a realist's top seven reasons to fill your Reds mug half- full, followed by the top seven reasons to pour out the contents of your Reds mug.

Top Seven Positives for the 2010 Reds Season:

7.  Though bullpens are the most unpredictable group on any Major League team from year- to- year, this group seems a strong bet to be amongst the NL's best again next year.  Nick Masset (1.03 WHIP, 70 Ks in 76 IP), Arthur Rhodes (1.07 WHIP, 48 Ks in 53.33 IP) and Francisco Cordero (1.32 WHIP, 58 K in 66.66 IP), in that order, would star in anyone's bullpen.  Carlos Fisher, Daniel Ray Herrera, and Jared Burton are solid, promising setup men who are cheap, just like they are supposed to be.

6.  The 27-13 finish in the last 40 games is pretty impressive.  Sure, it seemed like they played the Pirates and Astros for half of those games, but aren't they supposed to beat bad teams?  Do the critics want them to lose those games?  At the same time, it was the Pirates and Astros and those teams were fielding minor league lineups that would lose consistently in Triple- A; as a result, it's hard to measure just how good Drew Stubbs, Wladimir Balentien, and Darnell McDonald are.  Remember, Joe Nunnally and Chris Stines had hot Septembers too.

5.  Jay Bruce had a huge last month.  Going into the last weekend of the season, in which he continued to sit the bench for long stretches (?!?!),  Bruce was mashing at a .353/ .463/ .765 clip since his return from the DL.  The Reds still need a big bat in the middle of the lineup (Scott Rolen is not that bat) and Bruce is the only hope for that answer.

4.  The Reds' defense is vastly improved from the start of the year.  Edwin Encarnacion, the starting third basemen on Opening Day, has been the worst fielding 3B by all advanced defensive metrics every year for the last THREE years!  Alex Gonzalez had lost a step or two at shortstop and Willy Taveras, Manager Dusty Baker's personal recruit to play center field, showed that he was almost as awful in the field as he was at the plate.  They have been replaced by Rolen, Paul Janish, and Stubbs respectively and the comparison is like night and day.  Not to be overlooked is Jay Bruce's stellar outfield play.  If he had not been injured and missed almost two months, he would probably have led the league in outfield assists and deserved a gold glove.

3.  Its probable that Homer Bailey has turned the corner and become the star pitcher that everyone envisioned for years.  Every contender needs a hammer and with Aaron Harang no longer in that role, Bailey seems ready to lead the Reds in their biggest games.  With Bailey, Bronson Arroyo, Johnny Cueto, and Harang as the probable #1 through #4 starters, the Reds rival the Cardinals for the best starting staff in the NL Central going into the offseason.

2.  The emergence of young players such as Bruce, Bailey, Joey Votto, Balentien, Herrera, Fisher, Stubbs, Janish, Ryan Hanigan and a few others have tremendously upgraded the overall talent of this roster over the past year.  Compare those names to these winners from 2008:  Corey Patterson, Andy Phillips, Scott Hatteberg, Norris Hopper, Danny Richar, Ryan Freel, Jolbert Cabrera, Gary Majewski, and Matt Belisle.  Sure some of these guys played sparingly (Phillips and Hatteberg), but some were counted on to play major roles in 2008:  Freel, Majewski, Belisle and, of course, Patterson.  Yikes!  The Reds are much deeper today.

1.  The NL Central is weak and may be weaker next year.  This season, Pittsburgh proceded to build for the future by trading bad players for more bad players.  There is no light appearing in their tunnel yet.  Houston has an aging roster and the worst minor league system in all of baseball- not a good combination.  Chicago is similar to Houston; they have an aging roster, a thin minors, but add on some expensive contracts that hang like albatrosses in the form of Milton Bradley, Kosuke Fukudome and Carlos Zambrano.  Milwaukee may have the worst starting pitching staff in the NL this side of the Potomic River.  That leaves the Reds and Cardinals.  The Cardinals cannot resign Matt Holliday, Mark DeRosa, Troy Glaus, Rick Ankiel, Joel Pineiro and Todd Wellemeyer- all free agents.  Their defections will hurt, but only Holliday is irreplaceable.  If they re- sign him, the Reds are playing for the Wild Card.

Top Seven Negatives for the 2010 Reds Season:

7.  Scott Rolen's age has affected his hitting.  His power numbers are down.  Since 2006, when he slugged .518 for the Cardinals, he has slugged .398, .431 and .401 in the second half for the Reds (though he slugged .476 with the Blue Jays before he was traded).  His leadership and defense are still outstanding, but he should hit in the #2 spot in the order now because he is a different hitter.  This may not be a problem on most teams, but our inept manager will miscast him and therefore, underuse him in the fifth slot.

6.  Edison Volquez is out of action until next July and there is no satisfactory candidate to be the fifth starter.  Justin Lehr is a good #8 starter so he should be signed to a minor league contract.  Micah Ownings is not a major league pitcher or hitter.  Matt Maloney is possible, but inspires no confidence.  Triple- A pitcher Travis Wood (1.21 WHIP, 32 Ks in 48.66 IP) is probably the best answer.

5.  Willy Taveras is under contract for one more year.  It is easy for us to say that Reds owner Bob Castellini should eat the $4 million- its not our money.  Odds are that Taveras is back for 2010 and, combined with Manager Dusty Baker's affection for him, its possible he may still be starting in CF and batting first.  We can only pray that Drew Stubbs does not slump in Goodyear, Arizona or GM Walt Jocketty takes the Taveras toy away from little Dusty.  Early odds of Taveras starting on Opening Day:  2:1.

4.  The Reds Minor Leagues are as thin as they have been since the barren years of the Jim Bowden regime.  Some of it is just natural; you do not graduate talent like Bruce, Votto, Bailey and Stubbs and maintain lofty talent rankings.  But some of it is poor drafting.  There are no impact players of the ilk of Bruce and Bailey in the entire system.  Yonder Alonzo is the closest with Yorman Rodriguez, newly drafted Billy Hamilton, and 2009 ninth- round steal Brian Pearl having some underdog possibilities.  There are solid prospects like Todd Frazier, Chris Heisey, Juan Francisco, Ezequiel Infante and Zach Cozart and arguably one or two others, but then the talent falls off a cliff.

3.  Either shortstop or catcher needs to be upgraded for next year.  It is hard to have three sinkholes (including the pitcher) in any lineup, particularly when the moron making the lineup will pencil one sinkhole in the #2 slot.  Janish batted a miserable .211/ .296/ .305 in 256 at bats.  Ryan Hanigan, the likely starter next year, batted .263/ .361/ .331 in 251 at bats, but those numbers were inflated by a hot start to the year.  Both are excellent defensive players and deserve to be on the roster, but only one can start on a NL team.  A trade for a catcher who can get on base at a .350 clip or moving Brandon Phillips to shortstop and signing Orlando Hudson to play second base are the two best options.

2.  Dusty Baker's lineup skills are in a unverse all by themselves and that universe is Bizarro World.  This column has criticized Baker over the last two years and last Sunday, Baseball Prospectus took their turn roasting Baker.  Now the ball is back in our court.  To his credit, the man has fantastic people skills.  His stories and memories have won over the local press so much so that they refuse to expose the man for the fraudulent manager that he is.  To borrow a stat from Baseball Prospectus... Baker's combined 2009 number one and number two hitters in the lineup hit .245/ .301/ .345!!!!  Staggering.  Playing Taveras and then batting him leadoff was bad enough, but hitting Janish second?  How did the Reds win 78 games?  Any replacement for Baker would be an upgrade, including my son's Kindergarten teacher.

1.  The Reds' 2010 payroll is as flexible as Rush Limbaugh on the health care debate.  Cordero ($12 million), Harang ($12.5 million), Arroyo ($11 million) and Rolen ($11 million) will make up around two- thirds of the total payroll, which should be roughly $70 million.  Add on Phillips ($6 million), Taveras ($4 million), Mike Lincoln ($2.5 million) and Rhodes ($2 million) and $61 million of the $70 million payroll is already allocated.  With only Phillips and Rhodes being appealing in a trade (but unlikely to go)... ladies and gentlemen, meet your 2010 Cincinnati Reds.  They have needs are little means to satisfy them.

MLB cincinnati reds, 2010 cincinnati reds, homer bailey, jay bruce, edinson volquez