One week ago the Jets dominated the Bengals, rolling to a playoff-clinching 37-0 victory.  New York held Cincinnati to a franchise-worst 73 yards of total offense as they won the team’s last ever game in the Meadowlands.

How much the Bengals played to win that game is debatable, but the fact that they were missing three key defensive starters and opted to rest their top offensive player, running back Cedric Benson, suggests that we will see a much-improved effort this time around at they return home.

Will the Bengals be able to erase last Week 17’s disaster or will the momentum carry the Jets to victory? The answer to that riddle will determine which team emerges from Saturday’s playoff match-up with a victory.

FOR JETS TO WIN: They need to put pressure on quarterback Carson Palmer. He struggles against the blitz and the Jets are as good as any team in the business at bringing the heat.  Establishing Thomas Jones and their power-running game and keeping the game from getting into rookie quarterback Mark Sanchez’s hands is paramount to the Jets’ success.  Thus, the Jets can ill afford to fall down early and allow the crowd to become a factor.

FOR BENGALS TO WIN:  Plugging up the running game is a must. No team runs the ball better than the Jets and after getting gashed for 273 yards on the ground last week, the Bengals defense must step up and make tackles.  With the NFL’s top cornerback, Darrelle Revis, matched-up against Chad Ochocinco, another Bengals’ wideout is going to need to step up and give the Bengals a lift in the passing game.  The Bengals have won five straight games at home and went 6-2 there during the regular season.

KEY INJURIES:  Bengals’ WR Chad Ochocinco (knee), DT Demato Peko (knee) and S Chris Crocker (ankle) and Jets’ WR Jerricho Cotchery (hip) and LB David Harris (ankle) are all listed as probable and slated to go.

WEATHER: The expected kickoff temperature is Cincinnati will be in the low 20’s and will fall throughout the game. There is a 20 percent chance of some snow flurries and they are calling for winds in the 10-15 MPH range. The wind chill factor will likely reach single digits.

INSIDE THE NUMBERS:  Getting the ball to Cedric Benson has translated into victories for the Bengals. When the team’s leading rusher gets 20 or more carries in a game the Bengals are 6-1, with the fluke loss to the Broncos being the only loss.  The player that could prove to be the X-factor for Cincinnati though is wide receiver Andre Caldwell. He’s only caught three touchdowns this season, but the Bengals are 3-0 in games where he makes a trip to the end zone. A Caldwell touchdown could be the difference here.

WHAT VEGAS SAYS:  The Bengals are 6-4 against the spread (ATS) against teams over .500 this season, including last week’s game.  However, they are just 1-6 ATS over their last seven games. The opening number had Cincinnati as 4-point favorites, but most books are listing it at 2.5 points now. The over/under started at 36, but has since been bet down to 34.

FINAL TAKE:  Despite stumbling to the gate, the Bengals have the edge in this game. Homefield will be a factor and the biggest difference between this week and last week’s contest is Mike Zimmer. The Bengals’ defensive coordinator will actually put together a game plan to stop the Jets’ only source of offense, running the football. 

MY PICK:  Bengals 17, Jets 13

NFL nfl playoffs, cincinnati bengals, new york jets, carson palmer, darrelle revis, cedric benson, chad ochocinco