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Breakdown: Cardinals at Saints

13. January 2010  - Published by Dan Clasgens

The Arizona Cardinals a fresh off one of the most thrilling playoff games in NFL history, a 51-45 overtime shootout win over the Green Bay Packers.

Now they hit the road as they head to the Bayou to battle the New Orleans Saints, who enjoyed a bye last week and wrapping up the NFC’s top seed with a 13-3 record. The game will kick off on Saturday at 4:30 p.m. Eastern on FOX.

After starting the year with 13 straight wins, the Saints have dropped three straight games. Can they shake off the rest and turn the switch back on?

FOR CARDINALS TO WIN: If Arizona is going to advance, they’ll need to somehow slow down the Saints’ high-flying attack. As they showed last week versus the Packers they are very susceptible to giving up big plays. Their best route to holding down Drew Brees and company could be by focusing a bit more on running the football. Rookie Beanie Wells came on strong down the stretch and New Orleans is 21st in the league against the run, averaging 122 rushing yards allowed per game.  Dallas gave everyone a blueprint on how to beat the Saints, put pressure on Brees.  For Arizona to prevail top pass rushers Darnell Dockett and Bertrand Berry will need to step up.

FOR SAINTS TO WIN:  The road to victory for New Orleans requires them getting out of the gate fast. After a fast start to the season, the Saints struggled down the stretch with putting four quarters together. Coming off three losses and weeks of rest, the offense needs to get out of the gate quickly. By doing so they will not only put pressure on Arizona and turn them into a one-dimensional team, they will also allow the crowd to become a factor.  Taking advantage of 5-foot-8 corner Michael Adams (ala Green Bay’s game plan) b y matching him up with tall wideouts Marques Colston (6-4) and Robert Meachem (6-3) should translate into success.  Defensively the Saints need to rattle Kurt Warner. He is known to turn over the ball, but wasn’t pressured much last week by Green Bay as he completed 29 of his 33 passes.

KEY INJURIES:  Cardinals – WR Anquan Boldin (questionable, knee/ankle), LB Gerald Hayes (questionable, ankle); Saints – DE Charles Grant (knee, out), Pierre Thomas (ribs, probable), Lance Moore (ankle, probable), TE Jeremy Shockey (toe, probable), DL Sedrick Ellis (knee, probable).

WEATHER:  Dome

INSIDE THE NUMBERS:  Homefield advantage? The Saints are 12-4 over the past two years at the Louisiana Superdome and there’s no doubting that few stadiums can get louder for opponents. However, let’s not forget only the Saints, Colts, and Chargers one more than six games Arizona did on the road this year. Plus the Cardinals did win 33-13 over Carolina in this round of the playoffs last year on their way to the Super Bowl.

WHAT VEGAS SAYS: The Saints are favored by 7 points with a total of 57 in most sportsbooks. The early action appears to be leaning the Cardinals way though with about 64 percent of the current action on the spread is leaning towards Arizona with the over garnering 85 percent of the money. If you like the Cards you will want to take a look at the (+250) money line which yields $25 back for every $10 wagered.

FINAL TAKE: The Saints simply have too many weapons for the Cardinals to be able to slow them down too much. Warner needed a near perfect game to hold off the Packers in the opening round, but not even that will likely be enough for New Orleans who have been gearing up for this game for a few weeks.  It will be close early, but the Saints will pull away late and move on the next week’s conference championship.

MY PICK:  SAINTS 37, CARDINALS 27

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