NEW YORK JETS (11-7) AT INDIANAPOLIS COLTS (15-2)
Sunday, January 24 - 3:00 p.m. Eastern (CBS-TV)

Jets head coach Rex Ryan has been talking a good game and his team has been backing it up. Fresh off of four straight wins, including back-to-back road playoff victories, people are no longer accusing the Jets of backing into the playoffs or not belonging.

Ironically, the Colts sat many of their starters in the second half of Week 16’s match-up and lost a game that would have eliminated the Jets if they’d won it.

Indianapolis head coach Jim Caldwell opted to rest his players for a Super Bowl run rather than shoot for a perfect season. Now the Jets will get a chance to ruin Indy’s bid again. However, this time Peyton Manning and his boys won’t be heading to the sidelines early.

FOR JETS TO WIN:  They will need to rattle Peyton Manning. Yeah the Jets can run the football as good if not better than any team in the league and there defense is stellar, but if they don’t force Manning into an atypical performance their magical ride will come to abrupt halt. The Colts’ signal caller rarely turns the ball over, but if All-Pro corner Darrelle Revis can shutdown his side of the field and the Jets are successful in limiting Reggie Wayne and Dallas Clark, Manning could be contained. Another big key will be field position. The special teams need to make a big play or two to help give the Jets’ conservative offense some momentum. If rookie running back Shonn Greene gets a third straight 100-yard day and a score on the ground, I like the Jets chances for a U-P-S-E-T!

FOR COLTS TO WIN: Indianapolis needs to rely on something besides Peyton Manning. Their defense would be a good starting point. The unit showed some good signs of life coming off the bye in last week’s near shutout of the Ravens. It wouldn’t hurt the Colts’ chances if Joseph Addai actually decides to show up. They only managed 42 yards last week versus Baltimore and had six rushes that went for a loss. The Jets’ rushing D is even better. Addai needs to have a couple of big runs to keep some pressure off of Manning and help open up the passing game.  Young wideouts Pierre Garcon and Austin Collie have had breakout seasons for Indy. If the Colts are going to make to the Super Bowl, the duo will need to contribute.

KEY INJURIES:  No major injuries.

WEATHER:  Dome

INSIDE THE NUMBERS: With a wins on Sunday, the Jets can join the ‘05 Steelers and ‘07 Giants as the third team in the last five year to advance to the Super Bowl after winning three consecutive road games as a wild card team. Both the Steelers and Giants went on to win the Super Bowl.

WHAT VEGAS SAYS: The game opened up with the Colts favored by 7 points with the total set at 41.5, however most books have now bumped the number up to 8 with heavy early action on Indianapolis. The under is all drawing bettors’ attention as most casinos have it dropping down to 39.

FINAL TAKE: Those that think the Jets are flukes don’t know much about football. They have shown that shutdown defense and the ability to move the ball on the ground translates into January victories.  However, I simply cannot endorse rookie quarterback Mark Sanchez beating Peyton Manning on the road to win the AFC Championship. The game will be hard-fought and low scoring. Expect it to still be up for grabs well into the fourth quarter.

MY PICK:  COLTS 20, JETS 16

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