The first Saturday in May as always mean it’s time for me to start some serious handicapping. This year’s Run for the Roses is as tough as ever to gage.

For starters Uncle Mo, the two-year old champion, was scratched on Friday morning. Throw in the fact that most analysts already considered this a down year for three year olds and things get really interesting.

The weather won’t be a complete washout like last year, but rain and storms are in the forecast. With Churchill Downs still being a dirt track, it could be a factor.

Despite the wide open race, I still find myself leaning towards the favorites a bit, at least on top.

Nehro is the horse I am keying on for my across-the-board and exacta wagers. He just missed in both the Louisiana and Arkansas Derby and the added distance here will work to the closer’s benefit. Plus, being on the far outside will prove to work to his advantage.

Dialed In, the morning line favorite, is lightly raced but I always favor a Florida Derby winner and horses that already have a win at Churchill Downs.

The third horse I am keying on is Soldat. Of the speed in the race he’s my best bet to get in the money and he has multiple wins at 1 1/8 miles, suggesting the distance won’t be as much of a factor.

Keep in mind the $1 TRI has averaged a payout of $5704 over the past five Kentucky Derby races. Here is my $1 Trifecta wheel (total $84 bet):

FIRST PLACE
19 Nehro
8 Dialed In
17 Soldat

SECOND PLACE
19 Nehro
8 Dialed In
17 Soldat
1 Archarcharch
10 Twinspired

THIRD PLACE
19 Nehro
8 Dialed In
17 Soldat
1 Archarch
10 Twinspired
11 Master of Hounds
16 Animal Kingdom
15 Midnight Interlude
3 Twice the Appeal

*If $84 is too rich for your blood, you can bet the same Trifecta for 50 cents; or if you want to go bigger you can double up and bet the $2 Trifecta. I have the horses listed in the order in which I like them.

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