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ESPN Releases New QB Rating

7. August 2011  - Published by Dan Clasgens

Like they have done with so many other things in the past, ESPN invented something and blew it up with major hype. The latest creation is the Total Quarterback Rating (TQR), a new statistical analysis released by the sports flagship on Friday night.

I’ve never quite completely understood the QB rating, but it did generally reflect itself in the standings. Teams with quarterbacks with good QB ratings generally also were on the winning side of the ledger in the standings.

What ESPN has done is tried to factor in a few added variables that take in account when plays are actually made in the game.  For example and 7-yard completion on 3rd-and-6 is valued higher than it is when the quarterback is facing a 3rd-and-16. How a signal caller performs when the game is on the line is also heavily considered.

A quick primer on the fundamentals of Total Quarterback Rating (from ESPN.com):

Scoring
: 0-100, from low to high. An average QB would be at 50.

Win Probability: All QB plays are scored based on how much they contribute to a win. By determining expected point totals for almost any situation, Total QBR is able to apply points to a quarterback based on every type of play he would be involved in.

Dividing Credit: Total QBR factors in such things as overthrows, underthrows, yards after the catch and more to accurately determine how much a QB contributes to each play

Clutch Index: How critical a certain play is based on when it happens

MY TAKE: The system actually makes sense on many fronts, but the concept is hardly original. Websites like FootballOutsiders.com and AdvancedNFLStats.com have suggested similar criteria in their advanced quarterback rating systems before. However, neither of them have the clout to make it stick. Like it or not, ESPN is about to shove TQR down our throats. According to the system Tom Brady, Peyton Manning, Matt Ryan, Aaron Rodgers, and Michael Vick were the league’s best passers in 2010, but I could of you told you that without breaking out the calculator or creating a system that required a one-hour special.

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