Fantasy Snapshot: Quarterbacks

18. August 2011  - Published by Dan Clasgens

We take a deep look at fantasy quarterbacks with the season appoaching:

DRAFTING STRATEGY
--Consistency is key
As always, knowing your scoring is key. Some leagues reward heavily for QB yards and touchdowns and that will alter your rankings a bit for sure. No position is tougher to get a read on in fantasy than the quarterback position. I always recommend drafting in tiers, but it is most important to do so at quarterback. In 12-team leagues Tier 1 quarterbacks will go in Round 1 and early in to Round 2 and be gone by Round 3. The Second Tier will follow suit and likely be swallowed up by the end of the third or fourth round.  If you can’t get one of the players in the top 6 – Rodgers, Vick, Brees, Manning, Brady, Rivers - you are better off waiting a grabbing two passers in the mid round. Getting an elite quarterback ensures you weekly production with the potential of multiple breakout weeks. Going without one of them will likely lead to line-up headaches.


CREAM OF THE CROP

--Aaron Rodgers: Had it not been for problems with concussions, there’s no telling how many fantasy points Rodgers would have put up in 2010. He still finished as a top fantasy producer without much of a running game. If he stays healthy he could approach the 40-TD mark.

--Michael Vick: He has the potential to throw for 30 TD’s and run for 10-12. Injuries are a concern, but his talent with the talent around him he is likely going to be a first round pick in most leagues.

--Drew Brees: He didn’t finish as a top five fantasy quarterback last season despite a career high in passing attempts and an NFL-best completion percentage. The real hindrance on his fantasy value was his 24 turnovers. Look for a bounce back in the year ahead, but don’t reach too high.


OVERHYPED
--Joe Flacco: I like his arm and makeup, but Flacco simply doesn’t get the pass attempts necessary to be an elite fantasy performer inside the Ravens offense. The team did add some pieces in the passing game, but Flacco is better looked at a strong QB2 candidate rather than a weekly option as a starter.

--Matt Cassell: Cassell is being viewed to high by most sites out there. He took advantage of the second easiest schedule for fantasy QB’s last season to finish as a top 12 option at the postion, but don’t bank on him being there this time. The Chiefs schedule is brutal and with offensive coordinator Charlie Weis no longer in the picture I expect a dip back.

--Donovan McNabb: It appears as McNabb’s situation got better moving from Washington to Minnesota, but I’m not touching him. With the Vikings investing heavily and overdrafting Christian Ponder with the 12th pick in April’s draft and McNabb’s fading skill set trouble could be ahead. Add to it Sidney Rice leaving the team and an aging o-line and no thanks.


UNDERVALUED

--Matthew Stafford: He has the skills, weapons and offensive system to be one of fantasy’s best options at quarterback this season, but after only playing 13 games over the past two seasons he simply needs to stay healthy.

--Josh Freeman: He’s not a sexy option and won’t have many 300+ yard, 3-TD games, but he is consistent. Freeman only threw 6 picks a year ago with 25 TD passes. He takes care of the ball and makes for a nice-low end fantasy QB 1 with upside.

--Kevin Kolb: The early reviews are positive on the Cardinals new starter. He has two things in Arizona that he didn’t have in Philly – job security and Larry Fitzgerald. He has a chance to be a top 10 QB, who will likely be around deep in to mid-rounds of drafts.


KEEP YOUR EYES ON THIS

--COLTS: Peyton Manning (Neck Injury) – Following neck surgery Manning will miss most of the preseason, but expects to be ready for Week 1. The concern has caused him to slip a bit in early drafts. There are some concerns here as Manning relies heavily on timing. Still, he’s as safe of a pick as they come. The fact he’s falling only means some owner will get him with great value.

--BRONCOS: Kyle Orton vs. Tim Tebow – Few owners are giving the Broncos’ battle at quarterback much thought. Perhaps they should.  Orton appears to have a lock on the job for now as new head coach John Fox has no allegiance to Tebow. Orton is a serviceable option and makes a great QB2 in the late rounds. However, Tebow put up monster fantasy days when given the shot and could be stashed as well.

--PANTHERS: Cam Newton vs. Jimmy Claussen – This one seems like a no-brainer. Cam Newton is easily the best playmaker on the Panthers’ team and should be given the job out of the gate. In keeper formats Newton has decent value, but even in redraft leagues he could be worth stashing late on draft day. I am playing the wait-and-see approach here though.


GSI QB RANKINGS

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