After coming up short in the Kentucky Derby was disappointing, but did not come as a surprise. There are so many elements that make it a tough race to handicap and none bigger in my eyes than combatting a 20-horse field.
During my year’s of handicapping the Preakness, I’ve always have had a tough time of breaking up with my Derby loser and that will likely be the case again with Creative Cause. The colt ran a respectable fifth in the Derby and won’t have to contend with as fast of a pace. At 6-1 on the morning line the price is right.
There’s no arguing that Bodemeister is worthy of being installed as the 8-5 favorite after just missing going wire to wire in the Derby. He’s a must play in all exotics, but it isn’t worth the money betting him straight up. This marks his third race in five weeks, leaving questions about how much he has left in the tank.
The general public will be behind Derby Winner I’ll Have Another and for good reason. The horse shows up. Derby winners have taken 7 of the last 14 Preakness Stakes and after letting his post position (No. 19) scare me away in the Derby I won’t forget him at the window this time around.
Value Pick: Went the Day Well
$10 WP #6 Creative Cause (total $20)
$1 TRI BOX (total $60)
--#6 Creative Cause
--#9 I’ll Have Another
--#5 Went the Day Well